By: Dividend Sensei
Click here to read up on the intro to this portfolio, the theory behind it, and its methodology.
Weekly Economic Data Review
While housing numbers came in better than expected, and weekly new jobless claims continue to be at multi-decade lows, the overall economic picture continues to show ongoing week growth. This means that it’s becoming less and less likely that the positive soft data (strong business and consumer confidence) will translate into actual acceleration in either wages, or growth.
That being said both the the New York and Atlanta Fed is maintaining its real time growth forecast for the next 2 quarters.
New York Fed GDP NowCast: 1.9% for Q2 1.5% for Q3 (unchanged from last week)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: 2.9% for Q2 (unchanged from last week)
Fortunately the super index, a metaanalysis of 9 other leading economic indecies, indicates that the probability of a recession within the next 3-4 months is just 2.31%