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3 Things Investors Need to Know About The Wuhan Virus Outbreak

3 Things Investors Need to Know About The Wuhan Virus Outbreak

Posted On January 28, 2020 12:40 pm
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Hysteria over the Wuhan viral outbreak could cost you a fortune. Here’s what investors need to know about the facts surrounding the latest global health scare.

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Dividend Sensei
Dividend Sensei

I'm an Army veteran and former energy dividend writer for The Motley Fool. I'm a proud co-founder of Wide Moat Research, Dividend Kings, and the Intelligent Dividend Investor. My work can be found on Seeking Alpha, Dividend Kings, iREIT, and the Intelligent Dividend Investor. My goal is to help all people learn how to harness the awesome power of dividend growth investing to achieve their financial dreams and enrich their lives. With 24 years of investing experience, I've learned what works and more importantly, what doesn't, when it comes to building long-term wealth and income streams and achieving long-term financial goals.

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2 Comments

  1. Mike Barker February 1, 2020 at 2:06 am

    You need to seriously review your numbers. If the death rate is 1.8 for flu and 2.6 (which is a badly calculated number) for Wuhan, how can Flu be 8,000 times more lethal?

    You need to take the time and not just look at pure numbers but understand the context of epidemiology.

    ALL viruses will have low death rates in the beginning. At this point, SARs was at about the same rate. Now, however, we have knew info. Wuhan is about 3 times more infectious as SARs and at least as virulent.

    Toner’s work is , so far, proving to be spot on because the virus is as bad as his initial calculations guessed.

    No, I am not suggesting hiding under the bed but Toner’s numbers now appear to be a conservative take. To stamp this thing out, it may take shutting down the world for a few months. Having told your readers just the opposite, I suggest that you tell them this side as well so that they can make good decisions and trust your words in the future.

    • Dividend Sensei February 3, 2020 at 4:27 am

      At the time of the article 8,000 times is how many more people the flu killed each year relative to Wuhan.

      The lastest study out of China shows 4.1 R0 (infectivity) vs 3.0 SARs and an estimated 6.5% mortality rate. SARs was estimated to be 7.7% and wound up being 9.4%. So far Wuhan has mortality rate of 2.1% but I’m watching to see if that spikes.

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